I woke up in time to watch the second half of Meet the Press this morning. I missed the talk with Jon Corzine (D-NJ) about the economy, but I did see a couple of people talking about the huge lead Obama has. He has a 11% lead in the total vote, but more importantly hes leading in ALL of the toss up states, and has a lead in 14 of the 15 most important issues. Therefore, Obama has 353 electoral votes, to 185 of McCain if the election ended today and they have to get just 270 to win. Thats a pretty serious lead. Obama pretty much just has to run the clock out at this point. McCain really needs something to turn his campaign around. Hes clearly not getting support from voters on major issues, so really the only thing left is to tear Obama down, which is what hes doing. Whats interesting is that Obama averaged about a 20% lead on the issues, but only has 11% of the vote, so clearly people are questioning his judgment, leadership, terrorist friends, etc. Essentially Obama is losing half of his potential voters becuase of things other than the issues, which leads to me the question, how many more people can McCain sway away from Obama? The answer is that he could sway the independents to his side, but i cant see that many independents going for the smear campaign about spending, leadership, and Bill Ayers. Ive seen the commercials, and they're alright. But at this point McCain needs more than alright, he needs more than pretty good, he needs at least 11% swing good. maybe he should get a 30 min. prime time tv slot right before the election. oh wait, Obama's alright got that covered. Really, the botton line is, I dont see where McCain's going to get an 11% move with a smear campaign, especially with Obama's momentum and strength going into these last few weeks.
-Bwa
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Even if the 8% point lead that Obama is reported to have holds, that is still a massive landslide. Bill Clinton won with 8.2 % point lead of GHW Bush in '92, and that was seen as massive.
ReplyDeleteThe question I have is this: has Obama peaked too soon?
The wednesday debate will be interesting. Will McCain be "presidential" or will he pull off the gloves and go at Obama with ire in his eye?